Imagine you’re at a restaurant, staring at the menu. You decide to try something new instead of ordering your go-to dish. After trying it and not enjoying it, you say, “I knew I should have just ordered my usual!” But in reality, you didn’t know how the new dish would taste until you tried it. When you made your choice, you didn’t have the information you have now—the knowledge that the dish would be disappointing. This new information makes it easy to feel like you should have predicted the outcome, even though it was impossible at the time. That’s hindsight bias in action.

breakfast food round table — Hindsight bias happens to everyone. Let’s dive into what it is, how it messes with your mind, and how you can outsmart it.

What Is Hindsight Bias?

Hindsight bias is a mental trick our brains play on us. It makes us feel like we predicted an outcome after it happens, even if we didn’t really see it coming. This bias is sneaky—it shows up when we reflect on everything from minor mishaps to big life decisions.

Think about it like this: Imagine you and a friend went to see a mystery movie. At the end of the movie, when the twist is revealed, your friend says, “I knew it!” But did they really? Or are they just experiencing hindsight bias?

Why Does Hindsight Bias Happen?

Our brains love to make sense of the world, and hindsight bias is one way we try to feel more in control. If we convince ourselves we “knew it all along,” we can avoid feeling blindsided or powerless. But this can also backfire and lead to some not-so-helpful thought patterns.

Examples

Missing a Bus: After missing a bus, you might say, “I should’ve left the house earlier. I knew I was going to miss it,” even though you didn't have any clear indication beforehand that you would miss it. Once the outcome happens, it feels obvious, but you might not have thought to leave earlier before the event.
Watching a Movie with a Twist: When watching a movie with a big plot twist, after the reveal, you might think, "I should’ve known that was coming. There were so many clues!" But when you first watched the movie, those clues weren’t as obvious, and the twist caught you off guard. Your newfound knowledge (putting the clues together) makes it seem obvious, even though the twist was carefully hidden.

After a breakup, it’s common to think, “I should have seen the red flags.” Sure, hindsight makes the issues crystal clear, but you likely didn’t notice them in the moment.

When we’re in a relationship, we respond to the information available to us at that time. We don’t have the full picture—just fragmented experiences shaped by emotions, context, and trust. What seems like a clear warning in hindsight may have looked completely different in the moment because:

🔹 We Give People the Benefit of the Doubt – If someone cancels plans often, we might assume they’re just busy, not emotionally unavailable.
🔹 We Are Invested in the Relationship – Love, attachment, and hope influence how we interpret situations. A dismissive comment might feel like a one-time mistake rather than a pattern of disrespect.
🔹 We See the Good Alongside the Bad – Red flags don’t always come as glaring warning signs. They’re mixed in with love, laughter, and good memories, making them harder to recognize.
🔹 We Trust What We Are Told – If a partner explains away their behaviour, we might accept their reasoning rather than assuming the worst.

At the time, we’re making the best decisions with the knowledge we have. But when the relationship ends, everything clicks into place. Suddenly, the behaviours we rationalized or overlooked now seem like flashing warning signs.

How Hindsight Bias Affects Mental Health

Hindsight bias might seem harmless, but it can have a real impact:

Increased Self-Blame: If you constantly feel like you should have known better, you might beat yourself up unnecessarily.
Eroding Confidence: Second-guessing past decisions can make you doubt your ability to make good choices.
Anxiety and Rumination: Dwelling on past events and thinking you should have predicted outcomes can lead to excessive worry.

How to Manage Hindsight Bias

Luckily, you can outsmart hindsight bias! Here are some tips:

**Pause and Reflect:** When you catch yourself saying, “I knew it all along,” stop and ask yourself, “Did I really know? Or am I just seeing it clearly now?”
**Be Kind to Yourself:** Remind yourself that you made decisions based on the information you had at the time. No one can predict the future perfectly.
**Write It Down:** Before a big event, jot down your thoughts and predictions. After the event, compare your notes to what actually happened. This can help you see how much we all misjudge outcomes.
**Focus on Learning:** Instead of dwelling on what you should have done differently, think about what you can take away from the experience. Mistakes are opportunities to grow, not reasons for self-blame.

Final Thoughts

Hindsight bias is a sneaky mental habit, but with awareness and a little self-compassion, you can keep it from taking over your thoughts. The next time you catch yourself saying, “I knew it all along,” take a step back and remind yourself that you’re only human. And if you’re struggling to shake those hindsight-fueled negative thoughts, we’re here to help at Seven Rivers Counselling. Together, we can work on turning self-doubt into self-compassion—one step at a time!

Making Peace with “I Should Have Known”: The Hindsight Trap